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  • Saturday, January 21, 2006

    And now to Hawai`i politics

    Two-term Dem Congressman Ed Case will challenge veteran Democratic Senator Dan Akaka.

    As I told my friends in an email, Holy sh*t.

    That's a huge deal. And in my mind, political suicide. When any youngster challenges an incumbent, it's a big deal. When it happens in Hawai`i, it brings up questions of whether that person really lives the "aloha" spirit (in other words, did his mother raise him right?) -- a question which comes into stark relief when you consider the age and ethnicities of the candidates.

    Senator Akaka is a beloved figure -- an elder -- with a vast and diverse constituency and support base. He's the only Native Hawaiian ever to have served in Congress; he has tremendous political and community experience (he came to the Senate from the House after appointment and special election when Senator Matsunaga passed away in 1990); he's a WW2 veteran; he is an educator; he is a golfer. He says he doesn't feel betrayed, but I think that a lot of voters in Hawai`i might be offended.

    That's just informed speculation on my part though.

    Especially in Hawaii, I imagine that this move is seen as confrontationally ambitious, but Case is couching it in terms of a platform of leadership transition, young blood and all that. Read: he doesn't want to wait until one of the 80-something senators dies, and he knows that neither have plans to step down. Also read: age and health will be issues. A senate term is, after all, six years. What's not being said here is that Case doesn't want to miss his shot if one of the senators passes on in office (which would allow the Republican governor to appoint the first R senator since Hiram Fong in 1977), so he isn't waiting but rather grabbing the bull by the horn, being quite aggressive -- and aggressive just ain't Hawai`i. Clearly, Case knows he really wouldn't stand a snowball's chance in Honolulu against Senator Inouye, but I just can't see him winning against Akaka either. He has bucked the system in Hawai`i... and pissed off a few folks along the way.

    It will also get the Republican party jazzed because the number of dems who will be vying for Case's seat may provide an opportunity to seat an R in the delegation.

    Makes for some interesting analysis and speculation.

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